Washington/New Delhi:
In a new chapter of geopolitical drama, US President Donald Trump has indicated that India has guaranteed him that it will discontinue purchasing Russian crude oil, which he claims will make it “much easier” for him to broker peace between Russia and Ukraine. However, trade data tells a different story — that India’s dependence on Russian oil is still as strong as ever despite increasing US pressure.
Trump’s Comment
President Trump told reporters in Washington that Prime Minister Narendra Modi had “assured” him, India would stop purchasing Russian oil, but also acknowledged that it would take time to change course. “You can’t do it immediately; it’s a process,” Trump said, indicating that once the war ends, “they will go back to Russia.”
Trump’s comment comes after the US imposed a 25 per cent punitive tariff on India for continuing to purchase Russian seaborne crude — totalling a 50 per cent tariff overall, making it one of the highest in the world. The White House rationalized the tariff as an extension of other tariff115118557.
It’s noteworthy that Trump also mentioned his intention to persuade China, another sizeable buyer of Russian oil, to follow suit – something that many analysts think would be much more difficult than it appears to be, diplomatically.
India’s Position: Energy First, Politics Second
New Delhi has yet to confirm or deny Trump’s assertions. For over two years, India has continually defended buying discounted Russian oil, arguing that it was an economic necessity to insulate home consumers from rising prices globally.
Indian officials have indicated that Russian oil imports also reflect energy security, not a political statement. “We purchase oil and gas from any country that benefits Indian consumers,” the External Affairs Ministry had previously said.
Additionally, India branded the US tariffs as “unjustified”, arguing developing economies shouldn’t be restricted on energy in the same fashion as developed economies.
The Numbers Speak
While Trump claimed otherwise, the facts reveal a different reality. According to Kpler, the top tracker of commodities and shipping markets, Russia remains India’s top crude supplier. In September 2025, India imported approximately 4.5 million barrels per day (bpd), or 34 percent of the country’s total imports. In all, despite imports dropping about 10 percent during January through August 2025, India still imported 70,000 bpd more than the total in August, indicating its dependence on Russian crude. A separate but related analysis by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) found that for September, India bought Russian fossil fuels worth ₹25,597 crore, again ranking as the second largest importer behind China.
The Bigger Picture
Experts do not anticipate that India will discontinue imports of Russian oil entirely anytime soon. Rising global energy prices remain volatile, and domestic consumption is booming. Therefore, New Delhi’s focus will remain on securing access to reliable energy supply, at prices it can afford.
“India has perfected the balance of diplomacy and economics,” noted an energy expert in Singapore. “While it respects its relationship with Washington, it cannot ignore the advantage of low-cost Russian oil.”
The Bottom Line
While Trump’s assertion that India will soon stop buying Russian oil can serve a political purpose, the trade numbers suggest otherwise. For now, India’s tankers are still arriving from Russian ports. And it remains a firm commitment to economic pragmatism in exchange for loyalty to political allies.
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