Lockdown-Level Emissions Cuts Could Clean Delhi’s Air by 2040

A recent study contends that if New Delhi enforces air-pollution curbs as strict as those during the COVID-19 lockdown, the city could meet national air-quality standards by 2040.

What the Study Found

The working paper titled “40 by 2040: Cost of inaction and delays in reaching Delhi’s air quality target” traces the ambient PM2.5 levels in Delhi from 1989 to 2025.

Despite multiple policy interventions between 2019 and 2025, annual average PM2.5 in Delhi has hovered around 100 µg/m³, more than 2.5 times the national standard — and 20 times the guideline set by the World Health Organization (WHO).

The researchers estimate that reproducing lockdown-level reductions – roughly 55% less pollution from anthropogenic sources, a 75% cut in winter-heating emissions, and a 100% elimination of stubble-burning emissions – could bring annual PM2.5 down to 40 µg/m³, compliant with the CPCB standard.

What Happens If We Don’t Act

In the event of Delhi achieving only 60 µg/m³ (and not 40 µg/m³) for PM2.5 by 2040, exposure to health risk would still be 11.6% higher than in the optimal scenario.

Worse, continuing at current pollution levels (~100 µg/m³) could lead to 35.3% more premature deaths than if the city reached the 40 µg/m³ target.

Lockdown Benchmark: Why It Matters

The COVID-19 lockdown of 2020 imposed an “involuntary experiment” where human activity—industrial operations, vehicular movement, construction—came down drastically. Various studies during that time demonstrate dramatic air quality improvements:

Levels of PM2.5, PM10 and NO₂ dropped by ~39–49% compared with pre-lockdown periods.

One study showed that less than a week into lockdown, air quality had already improved by 40–50% in most zones of the city.

Another study found that vehicular emissions, domestic coal combustion, and other pollution sources decreased by 86–96% during lockdown, which shows that large cuts in emissions are technically possible.

This is a real drop in pollution, illustrating why researchers take the lockdown as a base case to model long-term clean-air scenarios in Delhi.

What This Means for Delhi — and What Needs to Happen

For Delhi to reach the 2040 target,

Authorities must implement each and every one of the recommendations in NCAP 2019 without any delay.

Focus needs to stay on crucial pollution sources: vehicular emissions, industrial output, seasonal heating, construction dust, and – very importantly – the burning of stubble. Reductions or a ban on emissions from such sources are non-negotiable.

Public awareness and civic participation are not optional; only a combined effort of policy, community cooperation, and enforcement can replicate “lockdown-level” emission cuts in a sustainable manner – without actually locking down the city.

Why This Is More Than Just Numbers

Air pollution is not just an environmental metric but a matter of public health. This study quantifies the human cost of inaction: continued poor air quality means higher susceptibility to respiratory ailments, reduced life expectancy, and avoidable loss of lives.

Moreover, the lockdown experience showed that aggressive emission control is not only possible, but it offers real, measurable health benefits right away. Overview The “lockdown-as-baseline” approach provides a rather stark underlying message: if we continue with business as usual, Delhi’s air can be dangerously, or even catastrophically, dirty. Yet – with concerted effort, swift execution of existing plans for clean air, and stringent controls in place – achieving the target of 40 µg/m³ by 2040 is not only aspirational but also quite achievable.